Monday, June 8, 2009

Virginia Democratic Primary: Last poll results before Tuesday, June 9th

The last round of poll results are out. Public Policy Polling out of Raleigh, NC has the latest and it looks like Creigh Deeds has taken a decisive lead for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Here are the numbers:

PPP – (June 6 to 7) 1,082 likely Virginia Democratic primary voters, MOE +/- 3.0% (automated)

Democratic Governor

Creigh Deeds 40%

Terry McAuliffe 26%

Brian Moran 24%

Undecided 10%

PPP also polled the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s race. Jody Wagner has increased her lead, but the number of undecided’s still very high in this race. Since Bowerbank is still on the ballot, he was included in the survey:

Democratic Lieutenant Governor

John Bowerbank 06%

Mike Signer 12%

Jody Wagner 41%

Undecided 42%

While Wagner has had a double digit increase in her poll numbers, the number that still jumps out is the high number of Undecided’s. What is holding back Democratic Primary voters from getting behind Jody Wagner with less than two days until the Primary?

One last thought. I am not a fan of automated polling and prefer live interviews like the Suffolk University poll that came out on June 4th. But with a large enough sample and the primary within five days of the survey I would say that the PPP numbers are relatively accurate. The next question, besides who’s going to win on Tuesday, is the weather? From all indications, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms.


  1. Wagner is ahead by 29 points and that's not enough of a lead? Maybe you should be more concerned with the fact that Signer has only twice the number of support of a candidate who's been out of the race for three weeks.

  2. No it's not. This should be a huge concern for her, esecially if she does end up winning the primary. At this point, she should be much closer, if not over, 50%. The Democratic Primary electorate as a whole is not energized by Jody Wagner. This could also be said for the Governor's race, but there are three solid candidates running.

    It's not for me to be concerned about, but Mike's campaign. I know how I'm voting, and that's the only control that I have at this point. The fact here, is that Jody Wagner should have had this thing lock up a long, long time ago. Again, I ask a very valid question. What is holding folks back from supporting Jody Wagner heading into Tuesday? If she doesn't have any symbolance of enthusiasm from her own party (outside of the elected officials and Committee Chairs), how does she think she is going to win in November if she is the nominee?

  3. She's only at 74.22%. Not quite 75%. But I guess she'll squeek it out.

  4. But hey! Mike Signer almost doubled his support from the PPP poll!!! He got a bit of a surge. He did better than Bowerbank (snark)!

  5. Sorry, I couldn't help but gloat a little after having to hear all the bloggers proclaim Mike Signer as the cure for cancer for the past few months. I think he's a great guy, and he should definitely stick around, but he should start out a little smaller next time. Maybe Board of Supervisors or House of Delegates.

  6. Hey, you are entitled to a little gloating. The netroots got drubbed during the primary. As far as Mike and his next run (if he does), it will probably be Congress if I had to wager a guess. Mike wouldn't have gotten in the race if Jody and the rest of them had been talking about more than they safe issues. He took a shot and got thumpped. Now, on to beating Bill Bolling.