It finally over and now it’s time to unite. Before we do, a quick review of the results from yesterday’s Primary:
Governor
Creigh Deeds 159,324 (49.73%)
Terry McAuliffe 84,640 (26.41%)
Brian Moran 76,405 (23.84%)
Creigh Deeds’ win will be examined and analyzed as to what was the key to victory. My take is that he was consistent and stayed relatively positive throughout his run. Terry McAuliffe was a shooting star, and burned out fast towards the end. His high octane style with his access to high level surrogates got people’s attention. In the end, the voters wanted to see the substance behind the glitz, and they just couldn’t find it. Brian Moran spent way too much money on high level staff and consultants, as well as lots of money on instate politicos that promised much be delivered nothing. I don’t want to take anything away from any of these folks because the world of the operative is tough, and if you aren’t successful at some level they can’t command the rates they charge. But this was a complete failure. All three have their drawbacks and strengths, but Creigh’s tortoise strategy of slow and steady, it won the race.
Lieutenant Governor
Jody Wagner 212,460 (74.21%)
Mike Signer 60,976 (21.30%)
(John Bowerbank) 12,826 (4.48%)
Jody Wagner out lasted them all and held off a scrappy effort from Mike Signer. So, what does such a decisive victory mean? It just means that she won the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor. There have been a lot of Wagner supporters who questioned the reasoning and rational for Mike Signer’s candidacy. As the saying goes, you never get a second chance to make a first impression. The first impression Wagner made on me was her enthusiastic support for Right-to-Work and everything that comes along with it. It made me take a harder look at her to see if she understands social and economic justice and everything that comes along with it as well.
Mike was the darling of the blogospher and picked up a ton of positive press and free media. He was only in the race for four or five months. He tapped into support and a donor base that Jody didn’t have access to. Mike got into the race because none of the candidates at the time were talking about issues that directly affect people from the doorstep to the curb. I am going to support Jody Wagner in every way that I can, but I also hope that she was listening to the message sent from the 26% that did not support her. Now, on to beating Bill Bolling.
Showing posts with label Democratic Primary Lt. Gov.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democratic Primary Lt. Gov.. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Democratic Primary 2009: Final thoughts and where you vote
It's all over but the smilin' and the cryin'. Oh, and the votin'. I'm glad this is over today. I'm ready to win back the House of Delegates and sweep the top of the ticket. Here are my final thoughts on the 2009 Democratic Primary.
Governor has been a tough one for me. I’m not a big fan of T Mac, but he will have boat loads of money. While he starts with high negatives in the polling data, his deep pockets and access to big donors will be able to drive up McDonnell's negatives and make the race a really nasty one.
Brian Moran has run a terrible campaign and doesn’t even deserve consideration. I still like him, but I’m not voting for him. Prior to McAuliffe's entry into the race, it seemed that Brian Moran had the advantage being from vote rich NOVA. He spent way too much money at the beginning of the race on really expensive operatives and consultants. It's obvious now, that was waisted money. He also couldn't re-adjust is strategy to account for McAuliffe. His campaign just went down the tubes from there.
Creigh Deeds has run the best campaign I’ve seen since 2002 when I was in Oklahoma running the Democratic Coordinated Campaign. This race had four Democrats running for Governor and a little known State Senator from rural Oklahoma (is there any other kind of Oklahoma? Yes.) came from way down to restauranture Vince Orza and got into the run-off. He then wins the run-off to face former Congressman and Hall of Fame Wide Receiver Steve Largent. He wins the General Election by less than 7,000 votes state wide. His name? Governor Brad Henry. I am seeing parallels with Deed's campaign to this one that I worked on. Deeds didn’t have the money to go head to head with anyone and he did the only thing that he could. He kept on doing positive narratives of him. I don’t necessarily agree with him on everything, but I think he can win in the General. I think that Deeds will win today if he has any kind of GOTV plan.
For Lt. Governor it is no secret that I have endorsed Mike Signer. I think that by attrition Wagner will have rope-de-doped her way to the nomination. But, Signer has gotten a ton of free press and has really work the rest of the state. With over 40% still undecided heading into today, Signer has a small, outside chance of pulling off the upset. Regardless, I am going to support the nominee whether it is Signer or Wagner.
Lastly, if you don't know where you vote here is the link to the State Board of Elections web site where you can enter your locality, address, and get the information about your poll location. Whoever you support, just remember to vote.
Governor has been a tough one for me. I’m not a big fan of T Mac, but he will have boat loads of money. While he starts with high negatives in the polling data, his deep pockets and access to big donors will be able to drive up McDonnell's negatives and make the race a really nasty one.
Brian Moran has run a terrible campaign and doesn’t even deserve consideration. I still like him, but I’m not voting for him. Prior to McAuliffe's entry into the race, it seemed that Brian Moran had the advantage being from vote rich NOVA. He spent way too much money at the beginning of the race on really expensive operatives and consultants. It's obvious now, that was waisted money. He also couldn't re-adjust is strategy to account for McAuliffe. His campaign just went down the tubes from there.
Creigh Deeds has run the best campaign I’ve seen since 2002 when I was in Oklahoma running the Democratic Coordinated Campaign. This race had four Democrats running for Governor and a little known State Senator from rural Oklahoma (is there any other kind of Oklahoma? Yes.) came from way down to restauranture Vince Orza and got into the run-off. He then wins the run-off to face former Congressman and Hall of Fame Wide Receiver Steve Largent. He wins the General Election by less than 7,000 votes state wide. His name? Governor Brad Henry. I am seeing parallels with Deed's campaign to this one that I worked on. Deeds didn’t have the money to go head to head with anyone and he did the only thing that he could. He kept on doing positive narratives of him. I don’t necessarily agree with him on everything, but I think he can win in the General. I think that Deeds will win today if he has any kind of GOTV plan.
For Lt. Governor it is no secret that I have endorsed Mike Signer. I think that by attrition Wagner will have rope-de-doped her way to the nomination. But, Signer has gotten a ton of free press and has really work the rest of the state. With over 40% still undecided heading into today, Signer has a small, outside chance of pulling off the upset. Regardless, I am going to support the nominee whether it is Signer or Wagner.
Lastly, if you don't know where you vote here is the link to the State Board of Elections web site where you can enter your locality, address, and get the information about your poll location. Whoever you support, just remember to vote.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Virginia Democratic Primary: Last poll results before Tuesday, June 9th
The last round of poll results are out. Public Policy Polling out of Raleigh, NC has the latest and it looks like Creigh Deeds has taken a decisive lead for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Here are the numbers:
PPP – (June 6 to 7) 1,082 likely Virginia Democratic primary voters, MOE +/- 3.0% (automated)
Democratic Governor
Creigh Deeds 40%
Terry McAuliffe 26%
Brian Moran 24%
Undecided 10%
PPP also polled the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s race. Jody Wagner has increased her lead, but the number of undecided’s still very high in this race. Since Bowerbank is still on the ballot, he was included in the survey:
Democratic Lieutenant Governor
John Bowerbank 06%
Mike Signer 12%
Jody Wagner 41%
Undecided 42%
While Wagner has had a double digit increase in her poll numbers, the number that still jumps out is the high number of Undecided’s. What is holding back Democratic Primary voters from getting behind Jody Wagner with less than two days until the Primary?
One last thought. I am not a fan of automated polling and prefer live interviews like the Suffolk University poll that came out on June 4th. But with a large enough sample and the primary within five days of the survey I would say that the PPP numbers are relatively accurate. The next question, besides who’s going to win on Tuesday, is the weather? From all indications, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms.
PPP – (June 6 to 7) 1,082 likely Virginia Democratic primary voters, MOE +/- 3.0% (automated)
Democratic Governor
Creigh Deeds 40%
Terry McAuliffe 26%
Brian Moran 24%
Undecided 10%
PPP also polled the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s race. Jody Wagner has increased her lead, but the number of undecided’s still very high in this race. Since Bowerbank is still on the ballot, he was included in the survey:
Democratic Lieutenant Governor
John Bowerbank 06%
Mike Signer 12%
Jody Wagner 41%
Undecided 42%
While Wagner has had a double digit increase in her poll numbers, the number that still jumps out is the high number of Undecided’s. What is holding back Democratic Primary voters from getting behind Jody Wagner with less than two days until the Primary?
One last thought. I am not a fan of automated polling and prefer live interviews like the Suffolk University poll that came out on June 4th. But with a large enough sample and the primary within five days of the survey I would say that the PPP numbers are relatively accurate. The next question, besides who’s going to win on Tuesday, is the weather? From all indications, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
How solid or soft is the support of any candidate?
Vivian Page made some good points but this has nothing to do with mail pieces or literature. This has to do entirely about wanting the candidate you are backing, to win. It also has to do with how solid or soft the support of a candidate is, if they are being held accountable for oversights of details and making sure that candidates are fully vetted. I actually stumbled across this. I was fully willing to let this pass, but I started doing some checking and here is how this developed.
I contacted someone (a Democratic Chair) that I knew in the Roanoke Valley who was listed as a supporter of Mike Signer and they said they were supporting Jody Wagner and that they had given that endorsement that day (Friday). So I went to Wagner's website and saw the list of Committee Chair endorsers. I saw John Lawrence's name up there and contacted a Lynchburg City Committee member (Martha Hicks). I asked if this was true and she checked. What was correct was that he is supporting Jody, but he didn't give his permission to use his name in a list of endorsements (as Martha has posted, John Lawrence also wasn't overly concerned either).
Calling the Wagner campaign was not going to tell me anything that contacting the people on the list they rolled out on Friday that I couldn't confirm for myself from talking directly with them. What was the Wagner campaign going to say other than yes, all these people have endorsed us. Some of them were correct and some were not. I had another conversation with a different SWVA Dem Chair yesterday and it became apparent what the strategy was for the Wagner Campaign. They have been doing a final call around to local committees chairs to see if they have moved and I suspect that they rolled out the line, "Senator/Delegate/Sheriff, Coucilwo/man has endorsed us. Why not jump on board." And that's perfectly fine. Then there's the attention to detail part of this story. A chair, like John Lawrence, says that he is voting for Jody Wagner, but he doesn't say one way or the other that it is OK to use his name on a list of endorsements. This is where the staff person, or the candidate, needed to ask the question "Can we list/use your name as an endorser of the campaign?" With John Lawrence, it looks like that question wasn't asked.
Like I said in the first sentence of the post, something always happens in the closing days of an intra-party contest. This one is about attention to detail, but to be fair, the Signer campaign had one that was not solid either. In my post on why I am supporting Mike Signer, I said that prior to John Bowerbank's exit from the race I was inclined to support Jody Wagner. But that all changed when I saw the video of her enthusiastic support of Right-to-Work. I have also explained my position on that as well.
Then I took a harder look at Jody. There is nothing in her list of issues or campaign platform that shows her understanding of social and economic justice issues. She has a list a mile long of institutional endorsements that on the surface is very impressive, but when you dig deeper there is not much else there. Then I looked at where she stands on the lifting the Uranium Mining Moratorium and also any statements about the Fly Ash contamination of the well water around the Battlefield Golf Course in Chesapeake. I still haven't come across any position or statement. The Virginia Beach City Council has made their position very clear on the Uranium Mining issue since they get their drinking water from Lake Gaston, which is downstream from the proposed Uranium mine in Pittsylvania County. These are issues that are in her backyard.
I've just gotten back into active partisan politics but I'm a primary voting Democrat and I didn't get one piece of mail, not even a robo call from the Wagner campaign indicating to me that my vote was important to her. I got both from the Signer Campaign and two mail pieces from John Bowerbank who dropped out. Well, some might say Boo-Ho. So what that you didn't get contacted by the Wagner Campaign. What does that mean. Here's what it means. Jody Wagner is taking grassroots support for granted. She hasn't done a very good job of connecting to the grassroots beyond the elected officials and Committee Chairs. And, she is almost, almost, devoid of support in the Netroots Community (KathyinBlacksburg is one that I know is supporting her).
Leaning on Democratic Elected officials and Committee Chairs to influence the Democratic electorate to fall in line is not a good strategy. Hillary Clinton used this strategy and it didn't work too well. Jody Wagner just hasn't done a good job of earning grassroots support beyond the institutional level as evidenced by the 63% of the Democratic electorate polled last week that were still undecided for Lt. Governor.
I'm not slamming her, but being very honest and calling her out on some things that she and her campaign have taken for granted. If she does win, and that's not a guarantee, I hope that corrects these oversights and learns more about how things directly affect people and that she does a much, much better job of connecting and cultivating the grassroots and Netroots. She just hasn't show me that, yet. Right now, I'm leaning pretty heavy on Jody Wagner to make a point, but I would, and will be, just as critical of any candidate or elected official if they took grassroots support for granted or their constituents. For example, Senator Max Baucus of Montana scheduling Health Care Reform Town Halls and not being present at any of them, and to top it off, sending a video to be played at each of them explaining why he can't be there. Give me a break!
I want the best candidate to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor. I just think that people need to take a harder look at Jody Wagner and where she stands on some important issues before they make up their mind on Tuesday.
I contacted someone (a Democratic Chair) that I knew in the Roanoke Valley who was listed as a supporter of Mike Signer and they said they were supporting Jody Wagner and that they had given that endorsement that day (Friday). So I went to Wagner's website and saw the list of Committee Chair endorsers. I saw John Lawrence's name up there and contacted a Lynchburg City Committee member (Martha Hicks). I asked if this was true and she checked. What was correct was that he is supporting Jody, but he didn't give his permission to use his name in a list of endorsements (as Martha has posted, John Lawrence also wasn't overly concerned either).
Calling the Wagner campaign was not going to tell me anything that contacting the people on the list they rolled out on Friday that I couldn't confirm for myself from talking directly with them. What was the Wagner campaign going to say other than yes, all these people have endorsed us. Some of them were correct and some were not. I had another conversation with a different SWVA Dem Chair yesterday and it became apparent what the strategy was for the Wagner Campaign. They have been doing a final call around to local committees chairs to see if they have moved and I suspect that they rolled out the line, "Senator/Delegate/Sheriff, Coucilwo/man has endorsed us. Why not jump on board." And that's perfectly fine. Then there's the attention to detail part of this story. A chair, like John Lawrence, says that he is voting for Jody Wagner, but he doesn't say one way or the other that it is OK to use his name on a list of endorsements. This is where the staff person, or the candidate, needed to ask the question "Can we list/use your name as an endorser of the campaign?" With John Lawrence, it looks like that question wasn't asked.
Like I said in the first sentence of the post, something always happens in the closing days of an intra-party contest. This one is about attention to detail, but to be fair, the Signer campaign had one that was not solid either. In my post on why I am supporting Mike Signer, I said that prior to John Bowerbank's exit from the race I was inclined to support Jody Wagner. But that all changed when I saw the video of her enthusiastic support of Right-to-Work. I have also explained my position on that as well.
Then I took a harder look at Jody. There is nothing in her list of issues or campaign platform that shows her understanding of social and economic justice issues. She has a list a mile long of institutional endorsements that on the surface is very impressive, but when you dig deeper there is not much else there. Then I looked at where she stands on the lifting the Uranium Mining Moratorium and also any statements about the Fly Ash contamination of the well water around the Battlefield Golf Course in Chesapeake. I still haven't come across any position or statement. The Virginia Beach City Council has made their position very clear on the Uranium Mining issue since they get their drinking water from Lake Gaston, which is downstream from the proposed Uranium mine in Pittsylvania County. These are issues that are in her backyard.
I've just gotten back into active partisan politics but I'm a primary voting Democrat and I didn't get one piece of mail, not even a robo call from the Wagner campaign indicating to me that my vote was important to her. I got both from the Signer Campaign and two mail pieces from John Bowerbank who dropped out. Well, some might say Boo-Ho. So what that you didn't get contacted by the Wagner Campaign. What does that mean. Here's what it means. Jody Wagner is taking grassroots support for granted. She hasn't done a very good job of connecting to the grassroots beyond the elected officials and Committee Chairs. And, she is almost, almost, devoid of support in the Netroots Community (KathyinBlacksburg is one that I know is supporting her).
Leaning on Democratic Elected officials and Committee Chairs to influence the Democratic electorate to fall in line is not a good strategy. Hillary Clinton used this strategy and it didn't work too well. Jody Wagner just hasn't done a good job of earning grassroots support beyond the institutional level as evidenced by the 63% of the Democratic electorate polled last week that were still undecided for Lt. Governor.
I'm not slamming her, but being very honest and calling her out on some things that she and her campaign have taken for granted. If she does win, and that's not a guarantee, I hope that corrects these oversights and learns more about how things directly affect people and that she does a much, much better job of connecting and cultivating the grassroots and Netroots. She just hasn't show me that, yet. Right now, I'm leaning pretty heavy on Jody Wagner to make a point, but I would, and will be, just as critical of any candidate or elected official if they took grassroots support for granted or their constituents. For example, Senator Max Baucus of Montana scheduling Health Care Reform Town Halls and not being present at any of them, and to top it off, sending a video to be played at each of them explaining why he can't be there. Give me a break!
I want the best candidate to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor. I just think that people need to take a harder look at Jody Wagner and where she stands on some important issues before they make up their mind on Tuesday.
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