Tuesday, June 16, 2009


It goes without saying that these are incredible images and events coming out of Iran. Some of the discussions now are around the plausibility of Ahmadinejad actually winning. The consensus seems to be yes, but not by as much has he did. With the surge in the last week by Moussavi, and the support he was getting from moderates and young voters, as well as the implausibility that Ahmadinejad won Moussavi’s home town and region has people asking some hard questions about ballot tampering and voter intimidation. There is also the fact that Iran votes by paper ballots and hand counts them, so it is also implausible that the ballots could be counted within a few hours, if not a day. No wonder people are protesting in the streets. These are scenes that haven’t occurred at this level since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution.

The unfortunate down side to this is, according to reports on the news this morning, there are now 7 dead. The Iranian Ruling Council has agreed to a partial recount, but it appears that the end result will still hold. 53 million ballots were printed and 39 million were used. The rest are missing. Things could, and probably will, get worse.

A good friend and my Professor of Middle East Politics while I was at North Carolina Central University, Dr. Rolin Mainuddin, forwarded me this link to the Middle East Report Online. It is an article by Shiva Balaghi. This gives a little bit more background and insight on Mir Hossein Moussavi, who is not an unknown in Iranian political circles and is credited with steering Iran through the years of the Iran-Iraq War as the Prime Minister. While it appears that he is more of a moderate and less likely to spew the fiery rhetoric of Ahmadinejad, it does not appear that much would change under Moussavi regarding relations with Israel or Iran’s nuclear programs.

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