Democratic Primary Results - 2009 (Unofficial)

It finally over and now it’s time to unite. Before we do, a quick review of the results from yesterday’s Primary:

Governor

Creigh Deeds 159,324 (49.73%)

Terry McAuliffe 84,640 (26.41%)

Brian Moran 76,405 (23.84%)

Creigh Deeds’ win will be examined and analyzed as to what was the key to victory. My take is that he was consistent and stayed relatively positive throughout his run. Terry McAuliffe was a shooting star, and burned out fast towards the end. His high octane style with his access to high level surrogates got people’s attention. In the end, the voters wanted to see the substance behind the glitz, and they just couldn’t find it. Brian Moran spent way too much money on high level staff and consultants, as well as lots of money on instate politicos that promised much be delivered nothing. I don’t want to take anything away from any of these folks because the world of the operative is tough, and if you aren’t successful at some level they can’t command the rates they charge. But this was a complete failure. All three have their drawbacks and strengths, but Creigh’s tortoise strategy of slow and steady, it won the race.

Lieutenant Governor

Jody Wagner 212,460 (74.21%)

Mike Signer 60,976 (21.30%)

(John Bowerbank) 12,826 (4.48%)

Jody Wagner out lasted them all and held off a scrappy effort from Mike Signer. So, what does such a decisive victory mean? It just means that she won the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor. There have been a lot of Wagner supporters who questioned the reasoning and rational for Mike Signer’s candidacy. As the saying goes, you never get a second chance to make a first impression. The first impression Wagner made on me was her enthusiastic support for Right-to-Work and everything that comes along with it. It made me take a harder look at her to see if she understands social and economic justice and everything that comes along with it as well.

Mike was the darling of the blogospher and picked up a ton of positive press and free media. He was only in the race for four or five months. He tapped into support and a donor base that Jody didn’t have access to. Mike got into the race because none of the candidates at the time were talking about issues that directly affect people from the doorstep to the curb. I am going to support Jody Wagner in every way that I can, but I also hope that she was listening to the message sent from the 26% that did not support her. Now, on to beating Bill Bolling.

Democratic Primary 2009: Final thoughts and where you vote

It's all over but the smilin' and the cryin'. Oh, and the votin'. I'm glad this is over today. I'm ready to win back the House of Delegates and sweep the top of the ticket. Here are my final thoughts on the 2009 Democratic Primary.

Governor has been a tough one for me. I’m not a big fan of T Mac, but he will have boat loads of money. While he starts with high negatives in the polling data, his deep pockets and access to big donors will be able to drive up McDonnell's negatives and make the race a really nasty one.

Brian Moran has run a terrible campaign and doesn’t even deserve consideration. I still like him, but I’m not voting for him. Prior to McAuliffe's entry into the race, it seemed that Brian Moran had the advantage being from vote rich NOVA. He spent way too much money at the beginning of the race on really expensive operatives and consultants. It's obvious now, that was waisted money. He also couldn't re-adjust is strategy to account for McAuliffe. His campaign just went down the tubes from there.

Creigh Deeds has run the best campaign I’ve seen since 2002 when I was in Oklahoma running the Democratic Coordinated Campaign. This race had four Democrats running for Governor and a little known State Senator from rural Oklahoma (is there any other kind of Oklahoma? Yes.) came from way down to restauranture Vince Orza and got into the run-off. He then wins the run-off to face former Congressman and Hall of Fame Wide Receiver Steve Largent. He wins the General Election by less than 7,000 votes state wide. His name? Governor Brad Henry. I am seeing parallels with Deed's campaign to this one that I worked on. Deeds didn’t have the money to go head to head with anyone and he did the only thing that he could. He kept on doing positive narratives of him. I don’t necessarily agree with him on everything, but I think he can win in the General. I think that Deeds will win today if he has any kind of GOTV plan.

For Lt. Governor it is no secret that I have endorsed Mike Signer. I think that by attrition Wagner will have rope-de-doped her way to the nomination. But, Signer has gotten a ton of free press and has really work the rest of the state. With over 40% still undecided heading into today, Signer has a small, outside chance of pulling off the upset. Regardless, I am going to support the nominee whether it is Signer or Wagner.

Lastly, if you don't know where you vote here is the link to the State Board of Elections web site where you can enter your locality, address, and get the information about your poll location. Whoever you support, just remember to vote.

Virginia Democratic Primary: Last poll results before Tuesday, June 9th

The last round of poll results are out. Public Policy Polling out of Raleigh, NC has the latest and it looks like Creigh Deeds has taken a decisive lead for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Here are the numbers:

PPP – (June 6 to 7) 1,082 likely Virginia Democratic primary voters, MOE +/- 3.0% (automated)

Democratic Governor

Creigh Deeds 40%

Terry McAuliffe 26%

Brian Moran 24%

Undecided 10%


PPP also polled the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s race. Jody Wagner has increased her lead, but the number of undecided’s still very high in this race. Since Bowerbank is still on the ballot, he was included in the survey:

Democratic Lieutenant Governor

John Bowerbank 06%

Mike Signer 12%

Jody Wagner 41%

Undecided 42%


While Wagner has had a double digit increase in her poll numbers, the number that still jumps out is the high number of Undecided’s. What is holding back Democratic Primary voters from getting behind Jody Wagner with less than two days until the Primary?

One last thought. I am not a fan of automated polling and prefer live interviews like the Suffolk University poll that came out on June 4th. But with a large enough sample and the primary within five days of the survey I would say that the PPP numbers are relatively accurate. The next question, besides who’s going to win on Tuesday, is the weather? From all indications, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tracking the latest polls for the Virginia Democratic Primary: UP FOR GRABS! GOTV

Here is a list of the latest independent polls heading into June 9th Primary on Tuesday:

Suffolk University Poll – June 1st to 3rd (Live Interviewers) 500 likely voters, MoE 4.4%

Deeds 29%

McAuliffe 26%

Moran 23%

Undecided 22%

Research 2000/DailyKos – June 1st to 3rd Democratic Prim Voters, MoE 5%

Deeds 30%

Moran 27%

McAuliffe 26%

Undecided 17%

It’s pretty clear that Criegh Deeds has the BIG MO heading into Tuesday. Still a lot of undecided’s, but if the race stays within the Margin of Error (MoE), McAuliffe has the advantage because he invested in a Field Program, thus better able to GOTV his voters. He also has the money to saturate the airwaves with his ads. Bottom line: UP FOR GRABS! It all comes down to GOTV (Get Out The Vote).