Independents that delivered the overwhelming Democratic victory in November of 2008 to the tune of 52 percent, propelling them to control of the White House and both the House of Representatives and the Senate, only a third are supporting Democrats now. This according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll, where 32 percent of Independents support Democrats to keep control of Congress heading into the November Mid-Term elections.
The reason is clear. Nine out of every ten independent voters surveyed saying that the economy is their number one issue. The pain and frustration of a stagnating to faltering economic recovery and 9.5 percent unemployment (with the real number of unemployed and those who have given up on finding work much higher) is fueling the exodus of Democratic support. The only bright spots in the survey are Healthcare, a 44 to 41 percent overall support of Democrats over Republicans, and the fact that this was a random national poll and not at a Congressional District level.
This means that the 2010 Mid-Term elections will come down to how each Republican matches up to each Democrats, how well they run their individual races, and the level of partisan intensity that will be the key to retention or defeat on Election Day. Republican-Conservative intensity is way up this year. Democrats are have to figure a way to change the narrative that refocuses the argument in favor of their continued control of Congress. The only other thing that is helping Democrats, establishment Republicans have suffered more from insurgent Tea Party candidates who are much farther to the right of the conservative establishment Republicans and less politically savvy.
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