Will fiscal discipline mean longer Bread Lines?

Despite the demagoguery of TARP and the Stimulus by establishment Republicans, and the Tea Party movement that is being co-oped by the GOP, one of the things that is keeping people fed is TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families). 

So, with Tea Party candidates poised to have a better than noticeable presence in both the House and Senate, banging the drum of "No Compromise" with Democrats or the White House, what does this bode for the nation's strained social safety net? 

In today's Roanoke Times, there's an article on the modern-day version of Depression Era Bread Lines.  Despite the so-called waist and failure of the Stimulus, TANF funding, along with Unemployment and a whole host of other programs, have been a life line to millions directly impacted by the Great Recession.  These programs are in the cross hairs of the Tea Party Movement and the GOP Establishment. 

The reality is that contemporary Bread Lines exist.  But what if the Stimulus had not passed?  How much longer would they be? 

TODAY IS ELECTION DAY. 

VOTE YOUR FOR YOUR PRINCIPLES AND YOUR HUMANITY. 

GO VOTE! 

The evil stepchildren that are TARP and the Stimulus, and why Bush would do it again

Two very good Op-ed pieces today from the New York Times.  The first from Nobel Prize winning Economist Paul Krugman, countering charges from Republicans that the Stimulus was too big, it spent too much, and didn't deliver, is a bunch of baloney.  As Kruman explains,

"If Democrats do as badly as expected in next week’s elections, pundits will rush to interpret the results as a referendum on ideology. President Obama moved too far to the left, most will say, even though his actual program — a health care plan very similar to past Republican proposals, a fiscal stimulus that consisted mainly of tax cuts, help for the unemployed and aid to hard-pressed states — was more conservative than his election platform."

Krugman continues to charge that the much hated Stimulus package was way too small to have the effect needed to pull the economy out of the ditch created by the Wall Street meltdown.  

The next piece comes from New York Times Op-Ed Columnist, Ross Douthat, about the red-in-the-face anger at having to bail out Wall Street, better known as TARP.  Douthat writes,

"The question is whether the program’s extraordinary unpopularity is justified. Few elected officials may be willing to argue for the bailout, but plenty of policy wonks will make the case (from the safety of their think tanks) that the Wall Street rescue package is actually “one of the most unfairly maligned policy initiatives of all time,” as the Center for American Progress’s Matthew Yglesias recently put it.



This case was strengthened by the news that the bailout might actually end up costing the taxpayer less than $50 billion over all, rather than the $700 billion originally set aside to pay for it. Moreover, it’s the auto bailout, which the TARP funds eventually underwrote as well, that’s likely to end up being responsible for the bulk of these losses. As it stands, the federal government may actually end up turning a modest profit on the money injected into Wall Street’s failing banks.


Given what seemed to be at stake in the fall of ’08, TARP’s defenders argue, that doesn’t seem like such a bad bargain: the bailout may have averted a Great Depression, and it didn’t end up costing very much at all."

It all comes back to what were the alternatives to either?  For all the anger of the Tea Party Movement, and the jabbering of the likes of Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, Savage, O'Reilly, and all these financial and economic experts of their ilk, still no viable alternative economic plan from the Libertarian wing of the Republican Party,... except for LET THEM FAIL and more TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY.  That's what would have saved our economy and prevented a "socialist government takeover" led by Obama-Pelosi-Reid. 

And then there's this from former President George W. Bush, coming out of seclusion, to give a speech in Tyler, TX.  As reported by the Associated Press and reported by Politico,

Bush said that when the markets crashed in the fall of 2008, he recognized that if his administration didn’t do “something significant,” a “depression greater than the Great Depression” could occur.



The former president said the choice to backstop many of the country’s leading financial institutions “wasn’t that hard for me.”

That says it all.  It was that bad. 

If this were any other year...

There are relatively normal years when "partisan bickering" meant the back and forth between Democrats and Republicans boiled down to tax cuts, social programs, and national defense.  But, if this were any other year..., we wouldn't be talking about "nullification," repeal of certain parts of the 14th Amendment, prosecuting academics for research that doesn't jive with a particular ideology, or secession from elected officials. 

If this were any other year..., the public debate wouldn't be over the rights of Americans to build a place of worship, if towns across America were being overtaken by Islamic Sharia Law, or if every brown skinned Spanish speaking person was illegally in this country. 

If this were any other year..., the thought of terminating Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, and Unemployment Insurance would be laughed out of the room.  Or, the same medical care and coverage that members of our Armed Forces receive would be classified as "Socialized Medicine." 

But, this is not any other year.  This is the year of hyper-partisanship and extremist rhetoric.  This year, the people who are the most energized to get out and vote are the ones who finally have candidates to vote for that share these ultra-nationalistic, extremist ideologies.  These are the people that despite proof positive, a person's place of birth, citizenship, or religious affiliation isn't good enough to qualify them as a red, white, and blue American. 

Birthers, nativists, xenophobes, climate deniers, nullifiers, repeal-and-replace(ers), pro-balanced budget amendment, budget cutters, anti-tax, anti-social safety net, lock'em up advocates.  This is what's on the ballot for November 2nd.  Will Americans hold their collective noses and pull the lever, fill in the bubble, touch the screen for an ultra-conservative, nationalist agenda?  Stay tuned...

FINALLY, a common sense Conservative,... too bad he's on his way out

Republican Congressman Bob Inglis of South Carolina, who is as conservative as they come, was defeated for re-election in the Republican Primary.  No chance that seat was going Democratic, but he just wasn't conservative enough.  Why?  Listen to the interview by CNN's John Roberts: 



This hard, hard turn to the right in the GOP is going to devastate this party, if not relegate it to permanent minority party status after this election.  The damage to the GOP brand, the party of Lincoln, is so bad that whatever remains will be a shell of its former self. 

I'm not sure how Moderate Republicans will be able to stay in the GOP?  While I will disagree a whole lot with Conservatives like Congressman Inglis, there is a place for people like him in Congress.  Not a bunch of folks who will only intensify the white-hot rhetoric and push outright lies, misinformation, and distortions as absolute truth. 

Ex-Aides paint O'Donnell as someone not grounded in reality

In a year where any type of candidate with a pulse laying claim to the Republican mantle has a chance, former campaign aides to Christine O'Donnell during her 2008 trouncing are coming forward with more damaging insights into the Tea Party phenom. 

According to Politico, campaign staffers during here second stab at statewide office remember Christine O'Donnell as,

"a candidate who was less interested in conservative causes than scoring a television deal, one who suggested dodging campaign vendors, believed she could give the keynote speech at the Republican National Convention and fixated on a harebrained idea to distribute tens of thousands of two-ounce suntan lotion packets to voters."

For the full story, click here. 

I wish I could say that Progressives are immune from candidates like this, but I've worked with and been around more than my fair share.  But it's good for a change to see Conservatives flailing to figure out how close they stand to their newly minted Senate nominee.  At this point, it doesn't seem to be stopping South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint from raising money to just throw away on a lost cause.  Fine by me. 

Image found at:  http://www.csmonitor.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/media/images/0916-wires-odonnell/8647196-1-eng-US/0916-wires-odonnell_full_380.jpg 

Extreme Right-Wing Conservatives snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory?

The 2010 Primary Season is officially over and victories by Tea Party back candidates have rocked the GOP establishment to their foundation.  Look no further than Delaware and Christine O'Donnell's victory over Congressman Mike Castle.  Up to this point, Republican Mike Castle had never lost a political contest in this deep, dark blue of blue Democratic strongholds.  This is a span of more than 20 years. 

While the Tea Party continues to demonstrate they're a force of conservative nature that the GOP establishment cannot contend with, the implications of their primary successes are just beginning to be felt.  Democrats, having been pummeled since the start of the Great Recession and throughout this lack-luster economic recovery, are feeling a stiff gust of wind in their sails with O'Donnell's win in Delaware.  Why? 

For starters, Christine O'Donnell is a perennial candidate with a personal credibility problem, has significant personal financial issues, has sued a former employer for discrimination and wrongful termination, and as the head of an "Abstinence Only" group made controversial statements regarding masturbation.  In a nutshell, O'Donnell is the GOP's worst nightmare come true.  Click here for the CNN report on her background. 

There seems to be widespread consensus that Delaware is off the target list for the NRSC, virtually assuring Democratic retention of the Senate.  But will O'Donnell's victory affect other GOP targets?  Possibly. 

Democrats now have a chance to turn the tables and make the case for them to retain control by nationalizing the Tea Party candidates as too extreme.  What kind of message can the Democrats cobble together with less than two months to go until November 2nd, that will hold the line for them to retain control? 

Just like Republicans were handed a gift by Democrats overreaching with their legislative agenda and not focusing on the economy first and then everything else, Democrats have been handed the gift of the Tea Party and the circular firing squad within the GOP.  Republicans had the Democrats on the ropes and the Tea Party threw a banana peal on the mat hoping Democrats would step on it and fall.  Whoops! 

So here's the picture Democrats have to paint for the General Election voters:  Message Received.  We hear you America and we'll do better.  But if you didn't like what the Republicans did when they had control, just wait and see if you give the keys back to this group.  Too extreme to govern and make rational decisions.  The GOP and the Tea Party will be the end of us all.  The GOP created this problem (The Tea Party) and now they can't put the crazy kid back in Juvee. 

Here's a short list of statewide GOP nominees that are supported by the Tea Party: 

Delaware U.S. Senate - Christine O'Donnell 
New York Governor - Carl Paladino 
South Carolina Governor - Nikki Haley 
South Carolina U.S. Senate - Senator Jim Demint 
Florida Governor - Rick Scott 
Florida U.S. Senate - Marco Rubio 
Kentucky U.S. Senate - Rand Paul 
Texas Governor - Governor Rick Perry
Utah U.S. Senate - Mike Lee 
Nevada U.S. Senate - Sharron Angle 
Alaska U.S. Senate - Joe Miller 

If you know of more, please add to the list.  But with just this list, the window of opportunity is there for Democrats to take advantage of the extremist candidates running on the GOP slate and put them under the magnifying glass.  Christine O'Donnell's victory might be the proverbial straw that breaks the camels back for the GOP to run the table.  Then again, the American public might just be that fed up with business as usual in Washington, D.C. to elect this group and their supporting cast. 

Image found at:  http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/09/14/0914_tread2_460x276.jpg 

Democrats hope invoking the Ali "Rope-a-dope" will save their majorities

According to Wednesday's article on Politico, the "Fail-Safe Plan" for Democrats is to go on Offense?  Click here for the story. 

As for me, taking body blows until your opponent gets tired is not a plan.  Too little, too late for Democrats? 

Image found at:  http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/12_01/aliDM0212_468x305.jpg 

Illegal immigration way down, but still a Hot Button issue for Goodlatte and the GOP

Several revealing reports came out last week debunking GOP claims that illegal immigration is up.  Most notable of those reports was the Pew Hispanic Center's showing an overall 8% drop in illegal immigrants living in the United States.  More significantly the annual inflow of new illegal immigrants dropped sharply, from a peak of 850,000 in 2005 to around 300,000 in 2009.

The Pew Hispanic Center report attributes the drop of inflow and unauthorized immigrants living in the United States to a corresponding decline in the economy and increased enforcement of immigration laws.  When compared to the years of GOP control of the White House and both chambers of Congress (2001 to 2007) where illegal immigration increased every year, Democratic control of the Executive and Legislative branches of government shows a reversal of that trend.

Sensing a growing tide of opposition to Democratic control, Republicans continue to beat the drum of illegal immigration as one of their signature wedge issues heading into the final two months of the 2010 Mid-Term elections. This despite the most recent evidence in the Pew Hispanic Center's September 1, 2010 report and data collected by ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) showing under Democratic control, enforcement of current immigration laws have increased significantly and deportations are way up. 

The focus of the Obama Administration's illegal immigration law enforcement efforts has been on those that have felony or misdemeanor convictions, non-compliance with deportation orders, and audits of employers who knowingly hire illegal workers.  But this doesn't seem to matter to Republicans, despite the contradictory data and evidence. 

In Town Hall meetings around Virginia's 6th Congressional District, sponsored by Congressman Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke), outdated or inaccurate information continues to be used to underscore the GOP's position to illegal immigration.  Here is part of my interview with Congressman Goodlatte regarding immigration:



According to a July 26, 2010 article by Washington Post Staff Writer, Peter Slevin,

The Obama administration has been moving away from using work-site raids to target employers. Just 765 undocumented workers have been arrested at their jobs this fiscal year, compared with 5,100 in 2008, according to Department of Homeland Security figures. Instead, officers have increased employer audits, studying the employee documentation of 2,875 companies suspected of hiring illegal workers and assessing $6.4 million in fines.

By Congressman Goodlatte's own admission, he didn't know what the penalty was but he thinks its significant. When $6.4 million in fines is divided by the 2,875 companies the Obama Administration has audited, it comes out to $2,226.09 per company. By any standard, a $2,200 penalty for domestic companies and businesses breaking U.S. Immigration Law, for knowingly hiring illegal workers is comparable to a slap on the wrist. At this point, the benefits to hiring someone who is not eligible to work in this country outweigh the costs.  Also, no indication if any of these employers have gone to jail for breaking the law?

So the question becomes are Republicans, like Congressman Goodlatte, intentionally misleading voters and their constituents with inaccurate information on illegal immigration for the sole purpose of regaining control of congress after November 2nd or are their Congressional Staffs really that bad at getting updated information from Homeland Security and ICE?  In some places, they refer to spreading misinformation as lying.  But in our country today, its called POLITICS. 

Links relating to this post: 

Center for Investigative Reporting Blog 
Homeland Security Newswire 
ICE Removal Statistics  
Fines/Penalties for hiring illegal workers  

DCCC starts to triage House races

Time is growing nigh and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has put out the word to its candidates to make their case, show how they're going to win in November, or they're pulling the plug on money and support. 

"At the end of the day, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will look at races we can win,” said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen, as reported in Politico yesterday. 

As with all political campaigns, the closer Election Day approaches idealism takes a back seat to the realities of cold hard cash and fundraising.  Even with ample cash reserves, campaigns that don't have an idea how they're going to win will find themselves on the other side of the door, noses pressed against the glass, without access to DCCC staff, resources, and most importantly the chance for a DCCC Independent Expenditure to bolster their own paid media efforts with third party attack ads.

With 67 days left until November 2nd, Van Hollen's looking at the political calculus on competitive House races and realizing the margin between retaining the majority and slipping back into the minority is getting very thin.  Striking a tone of optimism, Van Hollen remains confident Democrats will retain their House majority. 

The DCCC has done a better job of raising money during a down year for Democrats than the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), having a cash advantage of $14 million over their rivals.  But this is still not alleviating growing concerns from withing Democratic circles, as Politico reported earlier in the week. 

Evidence of this is showing up on the campaign trail, where many of the endangered incumbents are starting to openly distance themselves from Democratic House Leadership and the Obama Administration.  In Virginia, nine term Congressman Rick Boucher hasn't once invoked Obama's name in any campaign ads, opting for the "I'm from here, I'm one of you" campaign themes.

Freshman Congressman Tom Perriello, behind in every public and internal poll, is openly calling for the resignation of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner while at a local Tea Party meeting.  Earlier in the year, Perriello described Geithner "as a clone of Bush Administration Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson." 

In the case of Boucher, Perriello, and other Democratic House incumbents with huge cash advantages over their Republican opponents, the question remains will it be enough down the stretch? 

Image found at:  http://www.gamersace.com/images/PC-Combat-Medic.jpg

GOP establishment gets mixed results on Primary Night

What appeared to be a ho-hum line-up late season Primaries turned out to be quite dramatic in several.  Here's a quick look at some of them: 
Florida

The Republican Primary for US Senate went as expected with Marc Rubio winning by a wide margin.  In the Republican Primary for Governor, Rick Scott (former head of Columbia/HCA hospitals that paid a $1.7 billion fine for Medicare and Medicaid fraud) looked like he was fading fast heading into Tuesday, but pulled off the upset of GOP establishment candidate and Attorney General Bill McCollum. 

On the Democratic side, Florida state CFO Alex Sink won easily.  Some polls had McCollum ahead of Sink by 10 points, but with Scott the nominee, this is a totally different race and possibly a Democratic pick-up. 

The Democratic Primary for US Senate had Congressman Kendrick Meek beating out billionaire real estate investor Jeff Greene.  This sets up the anticipated three way Senate Race between Republican Marc Rubio, (former Republican turned Independent) Governor Charlie Crist, and Meek.  An interesting alternative story line to this race, this is the second Democratic Billionaire to go down to defeat during the 2010 Primary Season (Ned Lamont lost earlier in Connecticut). 

Arizona 

Arguably the most watched race of the evening was the Republican Senate Primary between John McCain and former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.  Hayworth was counting on low turnout and Tea Party anger to propel him to the upset, instead McCain pounded him.  

In Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, Ben Quayle (son of former Vice President Dan Quayle) won a crowded (10 candidates) and contentious Republican Primary.  The district is heavily Republican, but Ben Quayle hasn't exactly shown he's got the maturity to be in Congress (then again, he might fit in just fine). 

Alaska 

What appears to be the shocker of all the races, current Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is trailing Tea Party favorite and Sarah Palin endorsed candidate Joe Miller.  Miller is leading by just a few thousand votes, with absentee ballots still to be counted, which could take a couple of weeks. 

Sarah Palin 

Just when you thought she was gone, done, out for the count, Palin's streak of primary endorsement duds came to and end on Tuesday.  Everyone of her endorsed candidates won (or is leading). 

What does this mean? 

This was a mixed bag for Republicans and heading into November with the collection conservative and ultra-conservative candidates they now have, who knows.  The GOP will still make gains, but how many seats they pick up is still the question. 

GOP incumbents spent tens of millions of dollars to just get out of their primaries, like John McCain and Lisa Murkowski.  Others, like Rick Scott, spent heavily out of their own personal fortunes to get the nomination.  The questions here are will they be able to dig back into their own wallets and can they mend the fences they need with their GOP establishment to win in the General Election? 

John Boehner, GOP going ALL IN with a recycled Agenda of Failure

I would really like to see the polling that GOP House Minority Leader John Boehner is seeing that indicates Americans have totally forgotten that their social and economic agenda drove this nation into a ditch.  Click here for Politico's coverage. 

What's even better, he is calling on the President to fire Treasury Secretary Geithner and Economic Advisor Larry Summers.  Two people, who have strong personalities and a measure of culpability for the 2007-2008 economic collapse, who know a whole lot more about economic policy than Boehner and Eric Cantor. 

The best line from Boehner's speech this morning: 

“It’s time to put grown-ups in charge,... I’ve also told my girls how I was raised to never accept the next best thing for myself or my country.”

Words to live by and good advice.  I'm just wondering who are the grown-ups Boehner's talking about?  If Boehner thinks the recycled GOP Economy Wrecking Agenda (that killed millions of American jobs) is better than the emergency measures the Obama Administration (lets not forget, with Republican support) and Democrats implemented, then he needs to check his cigarettes to see if someone switched his brand for something more exotic. 

Image found at:  http://www.usnews.com/dbimages/master/11483/FS_DA_090617boehner300.jpg

America's need for Audacious Leadership

Two stories, one from Politico and one from CNN, on what Obama needs to do in order for Democrats to hold on to their majorities in the House and Senate.  The message is pretty clear from both stories: 

1.  Tell us where we are going and how we get there as a nation. 
2.  Use the Bully Pulpit of the Oval Office.  
3.  Lead, Lead, Lead. 

If Obama does these things, Democrats will fair far better than people expect. 

As Don Baer, former Communications Director for the Clinton Administrations, tells Politico: 

"You have to provide the country with a narrative of where we have been and where we need to go and how to get there.  That requires a theory of the case on the role of government — and the role of the president." 

Obama has fallen into the same wonky, inarticulate policy muck that most Democrats get trapped by and spend too much time explaining.  Rather than doing what Republicans do (forcing you to explain the details as the crowd goes to sleep or gets folks banging their head on a table and yanking clumps of hair from wherever they can), Democrats hunker down in the bunker and wait for them to stop swinging.

Contrary to the CNN article, Obama needs to forget channeling Reagan and get and infusion of some "Teddy" Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman.  That ain't "No Drama" Obama's style, but its what people respond to.  So far, Americans are responding and reacting to ultra-Conservative demagoguery that is tearing this nation apart. 

President Obama, time for some Progressive "Pragmatic Righteousness" to confront and counter the Demagoguery and Righteous Bigotry.  Give us the Audacity of Leadership. 

Image found at:  http://www.africabusinesssource.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/barack_obama1.jpg

New AP-GfK Poll: Definitive shift of Independent support away from Democrats

Independents that delivered the overwhelming Democratic victory in November of 2008 to the tune of 52 percent, propelling them to control of the White House and both the House of Representatives and the Senate, only a third are supporting Democrats now.  This according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll, where 32 percent of Independents support Democrats to keep control of Congress heading into the November Mid-Term elections.

The reason is clear.  Nine out of every ten independent voters surveyed saying that the economy is their number one issue.  The pain and frustration of a stagnating to faltering economic recovery and 9.5 percent unemployment (with the real number of unemployed and those who have given up on finding work much higher) is fueling the exodus of Democratic support.  The only bright spots in the survey are Healthcare, a 44 to 41 percent overall support of Democrats over Republicans, and the fact that this was a random national poll and not at a Congressional District level.

This means that the 2010 Mid-Term elections will come down to how each Republican matches up to each Democrats, how well they run their individual races, and the level of partisan intensity that will be the key to retention or defeat on Election Day.  Republican-Conservative intensity is way up this year.  Democrats are have to figure a way to change the narrative that refocuses the argument in favor of their continued control of Congress.  The only other thing that is helping Democrats, establishment Republicans have suffered more from insurgent Tea Party candidates who are much farther to the right of the conservative establishment Republicans and less politically savvy. 

AP-GfK Polls