New AP-GfK Poll: Definitive shift of Independent support away from Democrats

Independents that delivered the overwhelming Democratic victory in November of 2008 to the tune of 52 percent, propelling them to control of the White House and both the House of Representatives and the Senate, only a third are supporting Democrats now.  This according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll, where 32 percent of Independents support Democrats to keep control of Congress heading into the November Mid-Term elections.

The reason is clear.  Nine out of every ten independent voters surveyed saying that the economy is their number one issue.  The pain and frustration of a stagnating to faltering economic recovery and 9.5 percent unemployment (with the real number of unemployed and those who have given up on finding work much higher) is fueling the exodus of Democratic support.  The only bright spots in the survey are Healthcare, a 44 to 41 percent overall support of Democrats over Republicans, and the fact that this was a random national poll and not at a Congressional District level.

This means that the 2010 Mid-Term elections will come down to how each Republican matches up to each Democrats, how well they run their individual races, and the level of partisan intensity that will be the key to retention or defeat on Election Day.  Republican-Conservative intensity is way up this year.  Democrats are have to figure a way to change the narrative that refocuses the argument in favor of their continued control of Congress.  The only other thing that is helping Democrats, establishment Republicans have suffered more from insurgent Tea Party candidates who are much farther to the right of the conservative establishment Republicans and less politically savvy. 

AP-GfK Polls 

Tracking the latest polls for the Virginia Democratic Primary: UP FOR GRABS! GOTV

Here is a list of the latest independent polls heading into June 9th Primary on Tuesday:

Suffolk University Poll – June 1st to 3rd (Live Interviewers) 500 likely voters, MoE 4.4%

Deeds 29%

McAuliffe 26%

Moran 23%

Undecided 22%

Research 2000/DailyKos – June 1st to 3rd Democratic Prim Voters, MoE 5%

Deeds 30%

Moran 27%

McAuliffe 26%

Undecided 17%

It’s pretty clear that Criegh Deeds has the BIG MO heading into Tuesday. Still a lot of undecided’s, but if the race stays within the Margin of Error (MoE), McAuliffe has the advantage because he invested in a Field Program, thus better able to GOTV his voters. He also has the money to saturate the airwaves with his ads. Bottom line: UP FOR GRABS! It all comes down to GOTV (Get Out The Vote).